"Go early. Go big. Go first" - How to navigate through these uncertain times.
The market is changing and times are uncertain. Here's what you can do now to take control and proactively guide your company through them.
It's been a crazy few weeks.
In the last fortnight alone, the ASX is down 6.2% - at one point it was down nearly 10%. The market seems to be retreating from safe and stable offerings, and heading towards a 'risk-on' mindset in order to outperform.
Also over the last few weeks, I've:
- Met up with 24 listed companies one-on-one.
- Hosted another 10 leaders in Sydney, and 7 at our latest Melbourne dinner.
- Panelled at AIRA's Small-Cap Webinar.
I've noticed a consistent thread through all of these. The market has changed and we need to keep up.
What we're seeing.
On top of our observations from last week, there are some consistent trends emerging in the market that we should talk about.
(1) Bigger companies are experiencing sell-offs as the 'always supportive' instos start to retreat, forcing them to reassess their IR strategies.
(2) Small-cap companies are seeing an opportunity as liquidity flows back into smaller, higher-return stocks and drive share price movements, over-subscriptions in placements, and small discounts when raising. The ASX 200 is 10% of companies but 92% of market cap. We don't need much liquidity to move down for it to be impactful.
(3) Internal IR teams are juggling a changing landscape with management expectations while searching for answers fresh off reporting season.
(4) External IR teams are triangulating data between clients as they assess shifts in investor appetite, balance macro vs micro impacts, and shape strategic plans.
(5) Big investors, like AusSuper, are already more funds overseas and soon they'll be 'capped' on how much money they can invest in the ASX.
In summary,
- Interest rates have started to move down.
- Large and passive funds are deploying more overseas than here.
- The news cycle is harsh, fast, and unpredictable.
- And then there's Trump.
So what now?
All of this can leave you spinning and it's fair to feel unsure of what to do next.
I caught up with one director this week, who shared a key piece of advice from experienced chairs that have navigated similar experiences in this kind of change before.
"Go early. Go big. Go first".
Which is exactly what he's implementing in his portfolio companies right now.
There's a lot to be said for taking the initiative in owning what you can and making big calls when needed. It gives you and your team momentum, adds structure to an unstructured period, and give you vital breathing room. Here's a few things you can do:
(1) Capitalise on momentum.
If there's a run in your stock or some positive momentum, consider raising capital now to secure the ammunition needed for your next leg of growth.
(2) Be proactive.
Reaching out to investors is a must in this environment. As we discussed last week, there's renewed interest, a backlog of underserved investors, and you already have many of the details at hand.
(3) Engage with key stakeholders.
There's no reason not to be reaching out to your active or large existing shareholders, right now. If you need help identifying them and what to say, let me know.
We don't have the luxury of sitting back.
Getting active, getting fast, and acting now is the key towards guiding your company through this uncertain time. No longer can we sit back and assume things will blow over and be fine.
The last few weeks have shown that so let's start taking action. If you have any questions or need some help, reply here, and we can chat through this.
Cheers,
Ben