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Is the market up? Is it down? Either way, a lot is happening.

There is far more money moving around the ASX today than 6, 12, or 24 months ago.

Ben Williamson

Ben Williamson

— 1 min read

Hi there,

Firstly - happy birthday to me! The big 4-0. Any tips for entering my fifth decade, please send them through. 

Now, onto the market.

There’s a lot of noise right now. Is the market running hot?

Cooling down? Melting? Rallying?

If you only look at the last six weeks, you could make a pretty grim case:

  • Dateline down 57%
  • Droneshield down 65%
  • Life360 down 32%
  • EOS down 52%

But zoom out even a little… and the picture flips:

  • Life360 still up 62% over 12 months
  • Droneshield still up 184%
  • EOS still up 289%
  • Dateline somehow still up 9,000% (!)

Six-week windows are a terrible timeframe to judge a listed company, and even 12 months is short.

As I turn 40 I am encouraged to think more in decades, not months.

The goal is always long-term value creation - or as a friend of mine likes to say: “I’m long-term greedy.” And what’s driving these wild swings?

Activity.

A lot more trading activity. A lot more participation. And the data increasingly suggests that activity is being driven by:

  • Smaller investors
  • In smaller companies
  • With more frequency

We’ve covered ASX stats before, but the latest numbers paint a clear picture:

More capital is entering the ASX than leaving.

For the four months to October:

  • $10bn in net new market cap has entered the exchange
  • Last year, the same period saw $20bn leave

Shrinking markets hurt everyone. Growing markets lift everyone.

Trading is way up.

  • 40% more trades year-on-year
  • Average trade size down 12% (likely non-instos)
  • But total traded value still up 22% to $616bn

More money. More trades. More volatility. Smaller parcels.

It all adds up to one thing: a bigger market with more opportunity.

Are we heading up or down from here?
By sector? By company? By cycle? Honestly - I don’t know. 

But what I can tell you is this:
There is far more money moving around the ASX today than 6, 12, or 24 months ago. And that means more chance for your story, your momentum, your execution to cut through. 

As I step into decade number five, I’m genuinely excited about what’s coming.

Cheers,

Ben

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